Here is Bitcoin’s 2018 bubble overlaid in addition to this 2014 bubble. Here you’ll get a graph that resembles the crypto marketplace caps using this time frame also.
As it is possible to observe the drop from the summit to the latest low are nearing at this point. Fortunately or unfortunately depending upon your view, this doesn’t necessarily say everything about the future.
TIP: In the chart above, the one that is faded with the dots is 2018. If it is giving you a headache, go to BTC/USD on Bitstamp on TradingView and look at these chunks separately.
NOTE: In the chart beneath I’ve overlaid BTC 2014 — 2016 on a BTC 2013 — 2021 chart.In other words, if BTC 2018 — 2021 repeated the pattern from 2014 — 2016, it might look something like this. Clearly that doesn’t even need to occur, but the concept this is and then demonstrate that was the ending result throughout the previous episode.
If BTC 2018 — 2021 replicated the blueprint from 2014 — 2016, it may look something similar to this.
Although comparing both of these graphs doesn’t tell us everything about the future for sure, it might be interesting to some (like me) to compare the two charts for educational and entertainment purposes.
Here are some of the notable similarities I see medially the two bubbles.
- In each case Bitcoin went up at the end of the previous year and then dropped throughout the entire year (as of Nov 25, 2018 that is true for this bubble).
- The current cost and volume action in 2018 looks like a form of capitulation (if we accept that capitulation doesn’t only come about once at the end and also isn’t strictly just a phase on a marketplace cycle chart). There were only a few points on the 2014 chart that looked like capitulation, one at the bottom at $150 in Jan 2015, one at about $300 in Oct 2014, one at about $450 in Aug 2014, one at about $350 in April 2014, and one at about $400 in Feb 2014.
- With the above in mind, volume declined in BTC in 2014 all the way until August 2014 and it didn’t really fit previous levels until Oct 2014.
- Further, while you can assert 2018 is proceeding a lot of slower compared to 2018, you can find graph patterns indicating that is not in reality the situation. 1 thing to notice is that the cost action subsequent to the high-tech a triangle style contour in both 2014 and 2018. In 2014 the Valve breaks in October. In 2018 the Valve broke this past month, in November. That’s simply a 1 month gap.
- Now lets look at flat support. In 2014 the increase has been so quick there wasn’t a lot of horizontal support. Major support was from the before all else bubble of 2013, and interestingly enough the 2014 bubble held at that support. In 2018 the rise was more gradual, so there are more major horizontal supports to consider. One was at $6k-ish (where we consolidated for most of the year), one was at $3.5k to $4.5k-ish (we are at the bottom of that one now), one is at $2.5k-ish, and one is at the top of the 2014 bubble around $1.2k . Below that is the range in which BTC traded before the rise in 2015 — 2016 (anywhere medially $150 — $800 let’s say). You’ll notice that while I could put these numbers on a dart board, pick one, and then pray I look smart in retrospect… there is an element of guessing and gambling in doing something like that. These are all simply places the chart points to and can be spotted by eye or with basic TA. Let’s not view them as places to purchase or sell, but rather places to watch when comparing 2018 and 2014.
- Lastly, look beneath. Here is the 2014 marketplace cap of all coins vs. the 2018 marketplace cap of all coins. You can see we are still in a downtrend, but you can also see a general similarity medially the two chart patterns.
Market cap 2014 to 2018.
If things were to repeat perfectly, we might say this spot in 2018 is roughly equivalent to Oct 2014 or Jan 2015.
The triangle has broken down, volume has just started to come back by way of large red candles (one might argue these are capitulation candles), roughly a year has passed, we are starting to hit major supports from before the parabolic rise, we are approaching the top of the last bubble, and both the BTC and altcoin chart look more like Oct — Jan than they do the bit before that.
Of course the problems with that takeaway are many in practice and in theory. For example, in Oct of 2014 there was still another 50% decline to come, the top of the last bubble is more than 50% beneath the current cost, and guess what… there is no decree that says Bitcoin has to stop going down or ever come back or that patterns have to repeat.
Yes, so far 2014 and 2018 have looked like self similar fractals where the main difference is found in minutia like “at 2014 there has been a more pole taxation afternoon rally. ” However, similarities so far don’t reveal everything concerning the long run without a doubt.
The stark reality could be that the bears can short this item . Previously people that adhered with Bitcoin and slowed down were rewarded using alts seasons followed closely by epic profits in the coins which stuck , but this creation was simply rewarded using gloating Jamie Dimons and I told you ‘s.
Point , yay educational Bitcoin graphs, but when you’d like to understand what I consider grabbing falling knives, then visit a post on just how best to conservatively get ready for your worst or position sizing and hazard management.
NOTE: See the ones significant flat supports beneath $100? There’s not any decree which says we are able to ‘t head there. Do you have a plan for what happens if we do?
Bitcoin after all 2012 with some chart patterns and trend lines illustrated.