Dear @BillGates that there is certainly a simple method to short Bitcoin. It’s possible to short #XBT, the @CBOE Bitcoin (USD) Futures Contract, and put your money where your mouth is! cc @CNBC @WarrenBuffett https://t.co/4JIhF5vWsZ
— Tyler Winklevoss (@tylerwinklevoss) May 7, 2018
Gates explained this on May 8th if Bitcoin had been $9.3k. Tommy Lee has obtained the 25k Bitcoin position for a month or two.
Let’s assume that they put their money where their mouth is and let’s put both of these headtohead in an theoretical match.
We Shall have Gates go brief at $9.3k and Lee going extended at $9.3k.
Let’s assume that they simply take that standing from today until November — December 2018 (meaning that they must stay together with their standing because of the majority of the calendar year, but might depart their standing anytime at the previous 8 weeks of this year).
Let’s also assume they’re quite nimble and trade well and we’ll let them shoot the best and lowest costs of November — December respectively.
With all those terms put, we all must do is wait patiently until the close of the calendar year, and the winner will probably be determined by the cost tag on Bitcoin in those last months of 2018 (together with the cost payable off from $9.3k for the reason that span specifying the winner).
Sure, the truth is they would probably hedge, plus they’d potentially need to open and close their own rankings, but this really can be a theoretical match, therefore we’ll simplify the principles and assume that they both have exactly the equal starting funding exactly the equal leverage, just hold a position, and also prevent tripping irrespective of what.
My opinion: If I had to choose a wager, then I’d proceed with Lee. I don’t disagree with most of the points Gates or his comrades make (see the video), but I think he is vastly underestimating both Bitcoin, the Bitcoin marketplace, and human nature. From an outside perspective crypto might look like a tulip bubble, but from the inside, it is clear that it is a series of tulip bubbles in rapid secession waving in a volatile but upward trajectory. There is no sign I can see that suggests that the last of the bubbles has been blown, and with all the new players entering the space, my assumption is that Gate’s short position has less of a chance of paying off than Lee’s long. In short, while there is likely to be ample opportunities to short Bitcoin, I don’t believe that the typical trajectory is down and ergo I wouldn’t be favoring a short position over a long one, in the long term in general, and specifically for the duration of 2018.